Litecoin Looking Tentative on the Cloud



Greetings everyone. While we intend to do a more in depth look at WTF is happening in the greater cryptosphere – such as why we just got stopped out of most our trades, and why our ETH trade from earlier in the month is barely hanging on to the cloud on the USD side and will probably fall out based on the BTC pair… oh forget it we’ll hit that first (and quickly, very quickly), then move on to Litecoin – LTC.

ETH Bumping the Bottom

Here’s WTF is happening with our ETH trade idea from earlier in the month. First, the ETH/USD pair is bumping on the bottom of the cloud on the daily chart. As the caption says, we need this daily candle to close in the cloud or the trade is done.

However, based on the ETH/BTC pair we think ETH/USD will likely fall out of cloud. The reason – ETH/BTC has now entered a bearish edge-to-edge trade. Uggh.

(Sidenote – Coinigy [the charting site we use] doesn’t show the timeframe or chart settings on the screenshots unless you have it explicitly expanded on the chart when you take the screenshot. Hence the reason the settings are not visible. So you will just have to trust us that this ETH/BTC on the daily.)

So we are preparing to be stopped out on our ETH/USD trade as well. And so it goes.

On to Litecoin

Litecoin (LTC) is also not looking so hot on the daily LTC/BTC cloud.

As the captions state – there was a bearish rejection of a bullish TK cross under the cloud which is really not a good thing. Sure the daily candle for today could print a dragonfly doji, but the cloud seems to think the trend is bearish even if it does. At least for now. However, the cloud works best in a trending market, not a trading market. And this seems like a trading market which is leaning ever more bearish.

RSI is showing something close to divergence. But it’s not a clear divergence with lower lows on price, but higher lows on RSI. So it’s mixed in our opinion.

On the LTC/USD chart things are saying basically the same thing.

Again, damn you Coinigy for not including the charts details. Dear reader, you will just have to trust us that this is the LTC/USDT daily from Trex.

LTC looks like it is going to print another bearish TK cross here, with price still below cloud.

If we were trading this, AND WE ARE NOT TRADING THIS, AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, we would be trading this triangle and waiting for price to break out of the triangle to the upside before putting in our trade while putting stops below the support line.

We also noticed something on the 4hour chart which is a bit of a stretch, we’ll admit. But we haven’t been sleeping much lately and squinting at a screen from across a room can make you see things which may or not be there. If it is there, it is a head and shoulder pattern. Which if it completes, and the pattern holds, we would expect a decent drop in LTC afterwards.

But WTF do we know anyway. Just check out our last post to see how wrong we were there on just about everything. Seriously pretty much everything. UGGH.


UPDATE – JUNE 13, 2018

Well, the whole crypto space has broken down. And it is small comfort that our LTC TA was accurate. Here is how that played out.

LTC broke down out of the triangle it had been forming since March and is now taking a dive towards support around 0.01400ish. If it breaks that, 0.01300ish is the next support (all of these are very relative, we took the wrong screenshot and forgot to save it), then breaking that, watch out below.

That nasty head and shoulders on the 4 hour was confirmed unfortunately as well on the USDT chart. And we are plummeting. There is a distinct possibility of seeing $60ish again if we don’t find and hold support soon.

OK, BST out. Stay safe out there fellow crypto followers. It’s getting bumpy.

May the 4th be with Crypto

Fine, we hate ourselves for the title. But still couldn’t help it. Things are shaping up as we anticipated in the cryptoverse last time we spoke. The two biggest currencies – Bitcoin and Ethereum are continuing their major moves. Both are in the midst of major edge-to-edge trades on the 1D Ichimoku Cloud with Ethereum leading the way.


Ethereum has been on a tear recently as mentioned in the last post. On April 29 it closed in the cloud on the daily on the USD pair and meandered for a couple of days.

Then it printed that classic dragonfly candle and shot up. What was it waiting on? Well, remember how we discussed looking at both the USD and the BTC pairings when trading crypto? This is a great example of why.

Here is the BTC pair during the same time period.

As Josh Olszewicz (aka @CarpeNoctum on Twitter) points out when he talks about the Cloud. The point at which there is what is known as a Kumo Twist on the Cloud is where resistance/support are weakest. This means the probability of a major move is more pronounced at that time. And that is precisely what happened. Once price hit that area of the Kumo Twist on the ETH/BTC pair it shot upwards, rising almost 24% over the past 2 days with no signs of stopping from a TA perspective.

The other TA factor which is quite bullish is we have seen both a TK cross on the Cloud and a 50/200EMA cross on the daily at the same time.

As @CarpeNoctum says – number of times we’ve seen this happen = 0.

From a FA perspective however there is one very big potential fly in the ointment with the upcoming SEC meeting on regulation of cryptocurrencies which engaged in ICO’s.  That meeting will be held on May 7. If ETH is deemed a security it could be absolutely disastrous and we would expect to see the crypto markets react similar to the MT GOX event which brought on the 2014 crypto winter. We would expect to see a $400 red candle on the daily (or more) if this happens.

If ETH is not deemed a security then all TA and FA points to rapidly rising prices and ETH taking a shot at price parity with Gold before too long (roughly ~$1,300 at the time of writing).

BTC – Following ETH TA Lead

Bitcoin is making a very similar move to Ethereum as we speak. It is in the midst of an edge-to-edge move on the Cloud with a great setup for a TK cross and 50/200EMA cross in the next few days.

When that happens, we would expect price to react accordingly and follow the same upwards trajectory as ETH has done.


The traditional edge-to-edge trades on the Cloud dictate potential targets once price nears or breaches the upside or the downside of the cloud. So in bullish environments this would be at or near the top of the cloud with stoplosses set below the bottom edge.

None of this should be construed as financial advice. BST owns both BTC and ETH. 

Is Altcoin Season Imminent?

— UPDATED ON MAY 9, 2018 at the bottom of the article —–

Mr. Thing here. Sorry to say, April has been the cruelest month – breeding lilacs out of dead land. We at BST were so content to be sucked into the morass of spring with things like deadlines and work and moaning about our moribund bitcoins and altcoins. But no, crypto waits for no man. And so it was for us when we took a gander at the charts this past week.

First we said, “FFrmph?”, followed quickly by “ye-gads!”. Our grandfather always said, the best time to hunt bears was in the spring – and by zeus he was right.

Both BTC and the altcoins are picking up steam, from a TA perspective. Our previous Adam and Eve double bottom for bitcoin seems to be playing out. Now we have entered into a great potential edge-to-edge trade which Mr. Thing just took today bringing new cash into the crypto space for the first time in a long while. Here it is on the chart. 

This was a small cash position for us. But we felt it was worth mentioning.

Second we have been watching altcoins. Ethereum has been on the move recently as well as Bitcoin Cash which both just went stupid and doubled overnight from their recent bottoms.

For anyone who was in this space last year, this all should feel familiar. We at BST are expecting an imminent altcoin season which is being hinted at right now by the likes of ETH and BCH and is now being seconded according to Robert’s Rules of Order by the likes of Siacoin (SC) and soon Digibyte (DGB).

Here we see Siacoin posting an amazing candle which went edge-to-edge on the ichimoku cloud over the course of an hour.

Seriously, look at that wick. And even though it was rebuffed, it is still climbing.

And here we see DGB setting up for a potentially momentous move.

Note the last time the 50 MA crossed a flat 200 MA (yellow boxes on the chart).

And lest you were wondering why we chose these two. Check out the couple as they slow dance to 80’s throwbacks. SC is in bright green.

As a parting note – we wanted to bring up another trade we did today. This one is another edge-to-edge trade on GEO with a potential for at least a 2.8x from our entry where it touched the bottom edge of the cloud average entry of 27105 sats. This was only a .5% of our portfolio trade. But we felt it worth mentioning.

Stay safe out there in cryptoland everyone. Altcoin season may be upon us. ETH, BCH and SC seem to think so, DGB and GEO may confirm shortly. But if you’re from the midwest you know that while spring may seem sunshiny and warm, the weather is capricious and can change on a dime. And then those clouds you loved, well they just might hold tornados. So always know where your closest shelter is. PSA over.

UPDATE May 9, 2018: BST’s position in GEO got stopped out when it dropped too far below the cloud.

Remember TA is all about probabilities. So when the probability which you weighted at an 80% chance of success breaks down you exit the position and live to fight another day.

BST owns all of the crypto mentioned in this article. 

Bitcoin moves into spring – also Ethereum visits Oklahoma

Greetings to all of you who are tired of Winter (with a capital W). We know we are ready to be rid of plummeting temps outside, and plummeting prices in the bitcoin and crypto markets.

With global warming picking up, and the arctic posting unbelievably record high temperatures over the darker months it seems the bears forgot to hibernate.

But low and behold, Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, noted bitcoin bull, has emerged like Phil the groundhog and declared an end to winter, “the bottom is in for altcoins”. Of course this would mean a probable bottom for bitcoin as well since those two seem to go together like flies and the undead, or bullets and guns, to finish the Lost Boys reference. House of Stark, pack up and go home, spring is here.

Well, maybe. We live in flyover country, where the weather can turn on a dime. Too many times we get overeager and plant our tomato plants in March and then we get a big dump of a snowstorm that kills them all. Though as devoted bowhunters we do know that the time to go bear hunting is in the spring.

Anyway, aside from all the glib references, here is one chart which could show a path forward for bitcoin.

And here is Ethereum playing footsie with the Sooner state.

Crypto – The Ides of March, et tu BTC, Edition

Did someone say Crypto?

Greetings, and welcome to the Ides of March, Crypto Limbo edition. Did we say “lambo”? No, get your proverbial head out of your proverbial backside.

We said “Limbo”, as in “how low can you go”.


So it’s been a few weeks, and the inverted head and shoulders pattern we were watching on bitcoin at the end of February failed with prejudice.

Lots of “news following price” reasons have been given for those long bear candles at the neckline. A credible one in our opinion is the dumping of around $400 million in recovered Mt. Gox bitcoin by the Gox bankruptcy trustee on the open market on March 7. This was around 40,000 bitcoin. Why this was done on the exchanges, at market prices, instead of OTC (over the counter) is befuddling. But had you known about this ahead of time and opened a short you would have made out like one of the Mt. Gox bandits. Some of those candles on the 7th and 8th are $1,000 each.

And lest you thought we were out of the woods, the Gox trustee still has 160,000 btc which has yet to be sold (about $1.9 billion at current prices). There are no statements that that will indeed happen in the near future. In fact, the $400 million earned by the most recent sales appears to cover the outstanding debts to the creditors. But that is a not insignificant overhang in the global bitcoin market which lately has seen daily volume hanging around $6 billion.

The fault, dear Bitcoin, is not in our stars, But in ourselves.

Bitcoin dominance of the total cryptocurrency market cap is sitting at around 42% as of the time of writing. Bitcoin was the first across the fintech Rubicon and has been the leader of the overall crypto markets ever since. Yes, there was a time in 2014 and 2015 when altcoins ‘soared’ as bitcoin floundered. But the health of the overall crypto space was clearly still controlled by bitcoin. 

The argument could be made that right now the overall health of the cryptocurrency space is less determined by bitcoin than ever before now that its preeminence has taken a beating.

But looking at the charts of each of the top market cap coins, they all seem to be following Caesars’ lead.

So clearly, though the dominant narrative has been about bitcoin, and the Mt. Gox dump, the price action is weighing fairly equally on all crypto at the moment.

Not that I loved Bitcoin less, but that I loved Crypto more.

So, what does all of this tell us about the possibilities for where we might be headed? And, as someone asked recently, when we will know to “back up the truck”?

All good questions.

First, let’s get this out of the way – if you ever intend to “back up the truck” on crypto then you are betting on the macro trend. And if you haven’t figured it out yet, we at BST are definitely betting on the macro trend long term. We do not pretend to know, nor will we hazard a guess at whether it will be Julius or Brutus or Augustus who sails the great crypto ship of state into the waters of history. But we are betting on it being a Roman and not a Carthaginian.

Now, let’s talk timeframes/catalysts.

Looking at the chart below which maps total cryptocurrency market cap in USD (and also the reason we have been using USD/USDT charts instead of BTC pairing charts) you can clearly see the break in the 2017 trend in February 2018.

We are now in a distinct downward channel.

More importantly we are about to drop out of horizontal support if we pierce through the lower low from February 6, 2018. The next stop would be to bounce around at $200 billion market cap.

So, the narrative for the next little bit is going to be this – can we hold support between $320 billion and $300 billion? If not, then we would certainly be waiting on any trades till we saw whether the trend bounced of the edge of the downward channel. If it did it would confirm the pattern and we would have an idea of where the market might rebound to in macro terms. This of course informs our decisions on what positions and types of positions we’re holding. If on the other hand we invalidate the channel and drop, shorts might have a nice spring. Then we would be looking for support around the $200 billion range to reassess direction.

But one thing we do expect. Decisions will be made for us sooner rather than later. 



Bitcoin Inverted Head and Shoulders – Maybe

Two quick bullish scenarios for bitcoin (BTC) here if we confirm an inverted head and shoulders by rising back above the $11,800 mark.

The second scenario certainly cuts deeper than the other. So if the first becomes invalidated we won’t be losing hope till we break back below the $8,500 mark and hold there.

Ripple (XRP) Case Study – When to Bail on Something You Believed In

Love it, or hate it, we were holding Ripple (XRP) through most of 2017.

The XRP Investment Thesis & Entry

We had an investment thesis (which we might share in detail in a different post) which went like this. Something something something, banks. Something something something, new people to crypto love Ripple. Something something something, XRP could displace the $5 trillion moved through the SWIFT system every day so having 100,000,000,000 XRP in existence, all pre-mined, and most of them controlled by Ripple the company isn’t all bad. Sure the velocity of that money means that the price of the underlying mechanism will be suppressed. But still, if the price is right, let’s do it!

So when the price of XRP dropped hard in spring of 2017 we scooped it up.

Our averaged entry was < $0.03. Our projected exit price target was $1.00. Why $1.00? Well, it’s a nice round number. And while having XRP at $1.00 would mean Ripple had a market cap of $100 billion, we felt that that was achievable within a couple of years based on the growth rate of the crypto ecosystem at the time. Our theory was that if the entire ecosystem were >$1 trillion, it was not unthinkable that XRP would see and sustain $100 billion.

Ripple – the 1st Rise

Ripple saw a quick and epic rise almost immediately after we filled our whole position. We thought about selling part of our position when it crested $0.40 in late spring. But did not.

To be fair to ourselves, even though we had been in ETH and BTC since late 2016, XRP was our first sizable altcoin purchase. And we were still learning. You might have realized that by the fact that we priced Ripple in USD instead of BTC when making our entry and exit calculations.

So we rode Ripple all the way through the next 6 months of consolidation and accumulation.

Ripple – the Rippening

Then one day in December, while waiting on our flight out of San Jose we pulled up our portfolio app and lo and behold the XRP beast had awoken from its deep slumber. Not just awoken. It was like a redbull fueled ten year old.

Seriously – look at that rise. It’s amazing. I mean it blew through our old original price target of $1.00 with barely a pause.

But of course, that kind of a move, while unbelievable, was also unsustainable.

Ripple – The Fundamentals They Are A Changing

Our first inkling that something had changed was the suddenness of the move. Sure 500% in 10 days happens in crypto. But what ignited the fervor?

Allegedly it was the finalization of the lockdown in escrow of 55 billion of the remaining XRP by Ripple the company. But we weren’t buying it.

Yes, this escrow created an artificially fixed supply. Except the company would still be releasing 1 billion XRP per month for 55 months to bring the total in circulation to the aforementioned 100 billion XRP. All of which were still controlled by Ripple, the company.

And this was not new news. This was actually old news.

Yet the fact that it actually happened and was announced on December 7th acted like a second coming for the Ripple acolytes.

Suddenly all of the exuberance which had pushed BTC up north of $19k spread like wildfire to Ripple.

Of course, being hodlers ourselves we were thrilled. But we also asked ourselves – had the fundamentals changed enough to drive XRP up that high?

We had calculated in the spring that with a crypto ecosystem value of over $1 trillion, XRP could reasonably see a sustained price of $1.00. But here the ecosystem was barely over $600 billion.

And even with the XRP lockdown, there were still over 39 billion circulating. So at $2.00 per XRP, Ripple was nearing in on a $80 billion valuation if you generously only included the circulating supply. If you added in the total supply you were suddenly talking about a $200 billion market cap –  roughly 1/3 of the total crypto ecosystem market cap.  Does that strike you as a bit high? It did us.

But the crazy thing kept on rising like Cthulu.

So, how in the hell do you play something like this? Glad you asked.

XRP – Enter the TA Dragon – a.k.a. Understanding the Value of Using Both the BTC and USD Charts.

First of all, this kind of a move on the USD chart took us into serious price discovery mode. Had we exited at our original price target we would have left a lot of money on the table. Luckily we did not. Why? Well, we’d learned a few things since May.

If you look at the XRP/USD chart comparing the May move and the December move you see how difficult just using the USD chart is.

There’s really not much here that was good enough from a TA perspective to help you. We entered price discovery mode on the second day of the move and never looked back. There was barely even a good fractal to use there.

But that’s where the TA dark magic comes in. Check out the XRP/BTC chart.

Curious, very curious.

From the look of the XRP/BTC chart this was not unchartered territory. In fact, the December move seemed awfully similar to the April/May move on this chart.

So we started using the XRP/BTC chart as our guiding light. (Which, pro tip, you should too – in pretty much every TA scenario looking at both the BTC and USD charts will give you better insights into price movement.)

Here is what it told us.

The start of the move was accompanied by heavy volume, seriously heavy and sustained volume. 

Then, even though the volume was dropping off, the RSI kept rising in lockstep with the XRP/BTC price.

However, remember this chart? Notice how the last move up in early 2018 takes XRP to near the tippy top of its ATH against BTC. Where it gets rejected by that shooting star candlestick. This was not a good sign.

It also corresponded with a precipitous drop in the volume even while the XRP/BTC price kept rising. Also never a good sign.

Then, notice the almost imperceptible drop in RSI in the second push here followed by that atrocious red bear candle. You can see it better here on the 4 hr.

That was the sign we were waiting on. Well, that and the continuing ridiculousness of the market cap for XRP. Here’s a good example of how the fundamentals changed drastically in just a 3 week period.

Ripple – RIP, Sell the F*ing Bounce

After seeing this precipitous drop, and having gotten our battle scars during the altcoin winter which followed the altcoin spring in 2017, we knew what to do. Don’t sell the M^therF$ing dip. Sell into the coming deadcat bounce.

We expected a retracement back to within 20% of the ATH from an XRP/BTC perspective and laddered our sell orders there. (Laddering is a technique to mitigate slippage when buying or selling. Basically, if you are trying to offload x amount of XRP at a certain level, you break up the sell orders into 5-15 chunks depending on the size of your position. Then you space those out around your level. This allows you to hopefully not spook the market. While also ensuring that you can get an average exit in the range you desire.)

This allowed us to gain an additional 18% off of the initial dip’s lows.

The outcome – we sold 90% of our XRP holdings which we had picked up at less than $0.03 for an averaged exit of $2.73. We kept 10% in because, hell, who knows. This is crypto!

Love it or hate it, XRP was good to us. And we are looking to re-enter when the setup is right again. And we’re watching the XRP/BTC chart to tell us when.



Some Altcoins are Starting to Look Similar Again

Presented without any commentary because the last time we said anything everything tanked. But hmm. Some of these altcoins are starting to look similar.

OMG has clearly already made the start of its big move based on the volume spike. Remember, the best time to get in is before the big volume spike. You want to be accumulator. Like DGB. I’ve got my DGB bags packed.

Valentine’s Day BTC Thoughts – We Heart You Too

After a rough bout last week of food poisoning (us), and chart poisoning (bitcoin) both BTC and BST (Blind Swallowing Thing) are back.  I guess that will show us to not just eat any old thing. Though come on, you should have seen it coming – it’s in our name for the love of all that is holy.

Today, Valentine’s day, we thought we would get back to loving things. Specifically loving on some BTC.

Some of the FUD surrounding the massive BTC price drop is clearing. South Korea is not banning crypto. We knew this to be the case. But now the wider world has stopped shrieking enough to actually hear the words that people have been stating all along. In fact it now appears South Korea is going to mainstream it with a licensing structure for exchanges.

The US had a constructive Senate hearing on cryptocurrencies.  The CFTC chairman, J. Christopher Giancarlo, was actually quite supportive of bitcoin and crypto in general. He specifically stated, “We owe it this new generation to respect their enthusiasm about virtual currencies with a thoughtful and balanced response, not a dismissive one.” He also focused on blockchain technology, calling it a significant new tool which gives people the ability to reveal and check counterparty risk. Specifically stating that if it had existed during the financial crisis in 2008 they “may have had more and better policy choices available to respond to the crisis.” The only ire on display was that of the SEC chairman, Jay Clayton, and it was focused on ICOs. Which we all knew was going to happen.

And while some big banks are no longer allowing people to use credit cards to purchase crypto (not a good idea anyway) we did have Robin Hood announce it will open crypto trading soon. Which garnered it over 1MM people signing up to be on their waitlist.

So the demand is clearly not going away. Sure, it got kicked in the teeth. But hey, this is crypto. We never said it was for the faint of heart. In fact, you need to think of this more like Fight Club. You may have thought you were just going to grab a beer with bitcoin, then suddenly he says to you – I want you to hit me as hard as you can.

No one is getting out of this without a few scars.

On to TA.

BTC just made a move which we think has some validity behind it. $9,000 USD seemed to be a significant resistance point over the past week. But we have now breached that level on some pretty convincing volume. 

We also broke out of the pattern we had been ranging in since the beginning of February. Here you can see it fairly convincingly on the 4hr.

 And here on the daily.

A daily close above here will go a long way towards telling us we have definitely moved on.

Finally, on the 6 hr we just entered a potential edge-to-edge trade area which would see price move up to over $10,000 USD.

There was also a bullish TK cross which we circled. Though it is below the cloud. So take that with a big grain of salt.

The probability is that $10,000 USD is a significant psychological point and we expect to see chop around that point. Who knows if we hit that today, or tomorrow, or next week.

But for now, things seem to be looking better for BTC.



The BTC edge-to-edge trade on the 6hr is complete. 3 days $2,200+ return for each BTC. There was limited chop at the $10,000 mark. It did bounce around there for roughly 30 hours out of the 3 day move.

Ethereum – Thoughts on USD and BTC Prices

Ethereum moves and prognostications for USD and BTC after THE BIG DIP on February 2, 2018.

Welcome to Blind Swallowing Thing – the Bloody Groundhog Day edition. I’m Mr. Thing, and I’ll be the host today for the buy the bloody dip segment of the show. Before we get started, remember this is not financial advice.

Everyone wants to make a killing in any market. That’s why we speculate and trade. But to do that you have to weather the storms. You also have to actively look for opportunities. Sometimes those opportunities are staring you in the face. Other times, they peak under the blanket you’ve been hiding under while crying because the market just collapsed 60%.

This is one of those peak-under-the-blankets moments.

Quick context – BTC dropped below $8K early this morning and bounced off the daily 200EMA. It is coming back up and now sits around $8,500. But that is a far cry from the $19,000+ it was just 45 days ago. Clearly FOMO’ing into that top was a bad idea. We didn’t do it, and we hope our readers didn’t either. But it still is hard watching your BTC/USD balance drop significantly even if you’re not selling anytime soon.

So let’s get to that scary opportunity, shall we? We mentioned last night that we have been moving our longer term holds to be more balanced on the ETH side after holding BTC hard through the fall. This has been a good strategy so far, and we look to do more of the same in the near future. Which is why we were semi pleased to have some low bids for ETH/USD get hit early this morning. We had placed these awhile back, and honestly forgotten they were out there. Lucky for us, the exchanges didn’t. Why lucky? Well, let’s take a look at the charts.

Here is ETH/USD on the 4hr. Notice the clear bullish divergence in the RSI. Coupled with that spike in bullish volume we feel pretty solid about this buy.

On the ETH/BTC charts – they are a bit less optimistic that the worst is over. RSI is clearly showing a hidden bear div with a lower high even though we had a higher high in price and while the low on the RSI is not quite as low as the previous low around the 17th of January, the price is much higher. So we’re reserving our BTC at the moment. But watchful waiting is the name of the game.

On a side note when we pulled up the drawn objects on the ETH/USD chart we discovered an old Fib Time Zone which we had drawn back when ETH starting consolidating from its early December moves. It wasn’t really helpful. But was interesting that the further out the fib sequence got, the better it was at hitting major moves in the chart.

We have always liked the FA for ETH and the TA seems like a hidden opportunity to come in out of the storm. We expect to make some more moves soon.

Happy Groundhog Day. Let’s hope for an early spring for the crypto markets.

And remember – Don’t Drive Angry

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