UPDATED FEBRUARY 17
After a rough bout last week of food poisoning (us), and chart poisoning (bitcoin) both BTC and BST (Blind Swallowing Thing) are back. I guess that will show us to not just eat any old thing. Though come on, you should have seen it coming – it’s in our name for the love of all that is holy.
Today, Valentine’s day, we thought we would get back to loving things. Specifically loving on some BTC.
Some of the FUD surrounding the massive BTC price drop is clearing. South Korea is not banning crypto. We knew this to be the case. But now the wider world has stopped shrieking enough to actually hear the words that people have been stating all along. In fact it now appears South Korea is going to mainstream it with a licensing structure for exchanges.
The US had a constructive Senate hearing on cryptocurrencies. The CFTC chairman, J. Christopher Giancarlo, was actually quite supportive of bitcoin and crypto in general. He specifically stated, “We owe it this new generation to respect their enthusiasm about virtual currencies with a thoughtful and balanced response, not a dismissive one.” He also focused on blockchain technology, calling it a significant new tool which gives people the ability to reveal and check counterparty risk. Specifically stating that if it had existed during the financial crisis in 2008 they “may have had more and better policy choices available to respond to the crisis.” The only ire on display was that of the SEC chairman, Jay Clayton, and it was focused on ICOs. Which we all knew was going to happen.
And while some big banks are no longer allowing people to use credit cards to purchase crypto (not a good idea anyway) we did have Robin Hood announce it will open crypto trading soon. Which garnered it over 1MM people signing up to be on their waitlist.
So the demand is clearly not going away. Sure, it got kicked in the teeth. But hey, this is crypto. We never said it was for the faint of heart. In fact, you need to think of this more like Fight Club. You may have thought you were just going to grab a beer with bitcoin, then suddenly he says to you – I want you to hit me as hard as you can.
No one is getting out of this without a few scars.
On to TA.
BTC just made a move which we think has some validity behind it. $9,000 USD seemed to be a significant resistance point over the past week. But we have now breached that level on some pretty convincing volume.
We also broke out of the pattern we had been ranging in since the beginning of February. Here you can see it fairly convincingly on the 4hr.
A daily close above here will go a long way towards telling us we have definitely moved on.
There was also a bullish TK cross which we circled. Though it is below the cloud. So take that with a big grain of salt.
The probability is that $10,000 USD is a significant psychological point and we expect to see chop around that point. Who knows if we hit that today, or tomorrow, or next week.
But for now, things seem to be looking better for BTC.
The BTC edge-to-edge trade on the 6hr is complete. 3 days $2,200+ return for each BTC. There was limited chop at the $10,000 mark. It did bounce around there for roughly 30 hours out of the 3 day move.